Elliman 4Q16 Manhattan Report

2016

4Q

MANHATTAN SALES

REPORT Manhattan Market Matrix

CO-OPS & CONDOS

DASHBOARD year-over-year

PRICES

Median Sales Price

PACE

Absorption Rate

8.7% 0.5 mos

4Q–2016

Average Sales Price Average Price per Sq Ft Median Sales Price New Development Re-sale Number of Sales (Closed)

Closed Sales

INVENTORY

Total Inventory

MARKETING TIME Days on Market

NEGOTIABILITY Listing Discount

3.7% 6.9% 12 2.5% days

• Median sales price declined year over year for 2nd time in 3 years • Number of sales slipped as inventory edged higher • Slower marketing times and much more negotiability The Douglas Elliman Report series is recognized as the industry standard for providing the state of the residential real estate market. The report includes an extensive suite of tools to help readers objectively identify and measure market trends, provide historical context to current information and provide comprehensive analysis of the results.

%∆ (qtr)

3Q–2016

%∆ (yr)

4Q–2015

$2,098,459

3.2%

$2,032,459

7.7%

$1,948,221

$1,760

4.0%

$1,692

7.0%

$1,645

$1,050,000

-2.2%

$1,073,750

-8.7%

$1,150,000

$2,965,000

-26.1%

$4,011,044

44.0%

$2,059,411

$900,000

-5.3%

$950,000

-6.3%

$960,000

2,864

-3.7%

2,974

-3.7%

2,973

Days on Market (From Last List Date)

94

19.0%

79

14.6%

82

Listing Discount (From Last List Price)

5.5%

Listing Inventory (Active)

5,393

-13.9%

6,263

6.9%

5,046

5.6

-11.1%

6.3

9.8%

5.1

Absorption Rate (Months)

Year-to-Date

SALES

Quarterly Survey of Co-op & Condo Sales

2.9%

4Q–2016

Average Sales Price (YTD) Average Price per Sq Ft (YTD) Median Sales Price (YTD Number of Sales (YTD)

%∆ (qtr)

3.0%

3Q–2016

%∆ (yr)

4Q–2015

$2,064,837

N/A

N/A

12.7%

$1,832,069

$1,725

N/A

N/A

10.4%

$1,563

$1,100,000

N/A

N/A

8.9%

$1,010,500

11,451

N/A

N/A

-4.3%

11,962

MANHATTAN

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

NUMBER OF SALES

$1,300,000

5,000

$1,200,000

4,500

$1,100,000

4,000

$1,000,000

3,500

$900,000

3,000

$800,000

2,500

$700,000

2,000

$600,000

1,500

$500,000

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1,000

The Manhattan housing market showed more market. However the overall median sales price signs of easing in the final quarter of 2016, of a Manhattan apartment declined 8.7% year % MARKET AT/ABOVEyear LASTrelative LIST PRICE ABSORPTION RATE (INsales MONTHS) capping off SOLD a lackluster to the frenzy over year to $1,050,000. Median price of60% the prior several years. Legacy contracts, for re-sales reflected 83.3% of all closings,30and MANHATTAN new development sales signed a few years declined 6.3% year over year to $900,000, the ago that recently closed when their respective second and largest such decline of the past25four 50% projects were completed, continued to push years. New development market share slipped 40% higher than conditions reflected. Overall prices to 16.7% of all closings, from 18.6% in the20 year average sales price increased 7.7% to a 27-year ago quarter as their median sales price surged 15 30% record of $2,098,459 largely skewed by those to $2,965,000 over the same period. This was legacy a reflection of the shift in mix as the average 10 20% contracts within the new development

10% PREPARED BY MILLER SAMUEL INC. Appraisal and consulting services covering the New York City metropolitan area 0% 08 09 10

5 11

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2,000 1,500

$700,000 $600,000

4Q-2016

$500,000 $600,000

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07

08

09

10

11

12

The Elliman Report • Quarterly$500,000 Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales 06

size of a new development closing was 1,752 square feet, up 17.6%, while the average size of a resale closing was 1,079 square feet, down 8.5% respectively from the year ago quarter. The luxury market, representing the top 10% of all sales, had an entry threshold of $4,500,000 in the fourth quarter and once again set new price records for average sales price and average price per square foot. New development market share of closed sales comprised 58.8% of all luxury sales from 43.1% in the year ago quarter. The new luxury average price per square foot record was $3,219, up 25.2% from the year ago quarter. Overall resale activity remained 7.5% above the quarterly average for the decade despite declining for the fifth consecutive quarter on a year over year basis. There were 2,385 resales during the quarter, down 1.5% from the same period a year ago. Overall listing inventory rose 6.9% to 5,393 from the year ago quarter and fell 13.9% from the prior quarter, consistent with the seasonal pattern of the past decade. Listing inventory pattern by type showed very different trends. While new development inventory jumped 33.7% to 1,047, yet resale inventory edged up only 1.9% to 4,346 respectively from the year ago quarter. With rising inventory and sliding sales, the pace of the market slowed but remained brisk in some segments. The absorption rate, the number of months to sell all inventory at the current rate of sales, slowed to 5.6 months from 5.1 months in the year ago quarter, but was much faster than the 8-month quarterly average of the prior decade. The market share of sales above list price continued to slow as inventory expanded. In the fourth quarter, 12.6% of all sales exceeded the list price at time of contract, down from 29.1% in the year ago quarter to the lowest share in nearly 4 years. The sharp drop in bidding wars was reflective

07

08

09

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12

13

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15

16

13

14

15

16

% MARKET SOLD AT/ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE 60% % MARKET SOLD AT/ABOVE LAST LIST PRICE

MANHATTAN

60% 50%

MANHATTAN

30 ABSORPTION RATE (IN MONTHS) 30 25

50% 40%

25 20

40% 30%

20 15

30% 20%

15 10

20% 10%

10 5

10% 0% 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

5 0

0% 08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0

MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORPTION RATE

CO-OP CONDO

50 MANHATTAN

MONTHLY ABSORPTION RATE

45 50 40 45 35 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 15 20 10 15 5 10 0 5

CO-OP CONDO

<500K

$500K-$999K

$1M-$1.49M

1.5M-$1.99M

$2M-$2.99M

$3M-$4.99M

$5M-$9.99M

$10M+

<500K

$500K-$999K

$1M-$1.49M

1.5M-$1.99M

$2M-$2.99M

$3M-$4.99M

$5M-$9.99M

$10M+

0

[8.0 Month Rate, 10-year average] [8.0 Month Rate, 10-year average]

of additional inventory and the growing seller 82.1% were “all cash.” Days on market, the sentiment that it was time to price correctly and average number of days to sell all apartments MANHATTAN CO - OP MEDIAN SALES PRICE NUMBER OF 12 SALES cash out. “All cash” buyers continued to play an that closed during the quarter, was days important role. The market share for MANHATTAN “all cash” slower last OF year, rising CO -than OP the same period 3,000 $900,000SALES MEDIAN PRICE NUMBER SALES sales was 46.8% for all apartments. By property to 94 days. Listing discount, the percentage 3,000 2,500 $800,000 $900,000 type, 34% of co-op sales and 61.7% of condo difference between the list price at time of sale $700,000 2,500 $800,000 sales were “all cash” in the fourth quarter. Higher and the sales price, jumped to 5.5% from2,000 3% in priced properties had a higher share of “all cash” the prior year quarter. $600,000 $700,000 2,000 1,500 buyers. For apartment sales under $500,000, $500,000 $600,000 1,500 1,000 35% were “all cash” while those over $5 million, 1,000 500

Re-Sales $300,000 $400,000Market Matrix

• Median sales price and average sales price declined • Median sales price declined year over year for 2nd time in 3 years • Market share of sales above list price fell to lowest share in nearly 4 years

1,000

ABSORPTION RATE (IN MONTHS)

$500,000 $400,000

RE-SALES

1,000 1,500

06 07 08 Average Sales Price $300,000 06 07 08 Average Price per Sq Ft

09 09

Median Sales Price

4Q–2016

%∆ (qtr)

3Q–2016

$900,000

-5.3%

$950,000

10 11 $1,530,695 10 11 $1,418

12 13 14 -2.3% $1,566,066 12 13 14 -0.3% $1,422

%∆ (yr)

4Q–2015 500 0 16 -6.8% $1,641,511 0 15 16 1.9% $1,392 15

-6.3%

$960,000

MEDIANofSALES Number Sales PRICE (Closed)

MANHATTAN CONDO 2,385 -8.6%

2,608

NUMBER -1.5% OF SALES 2,421

$2,100,000 Days on Market MEDIAN SALES(From PRICELast List Date)

80 11.1% MANHATTAN CONDO

72

3,00071 12.7% OF SALES NUMBER

2.9%

3.1% 3,000 2,500 4,263 2,500 2,000 5.3

Listing Discount (From Last List Price) $2,100,000 $1,800,000 Listing Inventory (Active) $1,800,000 $1,500,000 Absorption Rate (Months) $1,500,000 $1,200,000 Sales Share of Overall Market

4.7% 4,346

-17.8%

5,290

1.9%

5.5

-9.8%

6.1

3.8%

83.3%

2,000 1,500 81.4%

87.7%

Note: This sub-category analyzes all co-op & condo re-sales available. The data is also contained within the co-op & condo markets presented.

1,500 1,000

$1,200,000 $900,000

1,000 500

$900,000 $600,000 Visit our website to browse listings and learn more about market trends $600,000 06 07 $300,000

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09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

500 0

60%

30

MANHATTAN MANHATTAN MONTHLY ABSORPTION RATE The Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales 50%

4Q-2016

CO-OP CONDO 25

50

20

40% 45 40

CO-OPS

30% Market Matrix Co-op 35

4Q–2016

%∆ (qtr)

3Q–2016

%∆ (yr)

15 4Q–2015

Average Sales Price 30 20% Average Price Per Sq Ft 25

$1,202,354

-6.9%

$1,291,269

-6.3%

10% 20 Sales Price Median

• Median sales price edged higher as sales slipped

-2.4%

$1,225

27.7%

$752,000

-4.3%

$786,000

0.4%

5 $749,000

1,502 12 75

-8.8% 13 2.7%

15 Number of Sales Month Rate, 10-year average] 0% 08[8.0 09 10 11 10 Days on Market (From Last List Date) 5 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) 0 Inventory <500K (Active) $500K-$999K $1M-$1.49M Listing

• Days on market and listing inventory expanded

Absorption Rate (Monthly, Active) MANHATTAN MONTHLY

• Sharp gain in listing discount

Co-op Mix

Sales Share

Median Sales Price

Studio

20.6%

$445,000

1 bedroom

44.0%

$710,000

2 bedroom

24.8%

$1,295,000

3 bedroom

7.8%

$2,240,000

4+ bedroom

2.8%

$4,809,448

• E xpanded marketing time and negotiability

Condo Mix

Sales Share

Median Sales Price

Studio

10.6%

$699,769

1 bedroom

35.5%

$1,150,000

2 bedroom

31.1%

$2,300,000

3 bedroom

15.0%

$4,767,431

7.9%

$8,316,000

1.5M-$1.99M 2,358

$2M-$2.99M -15.4%

$3M-$4.99M 2,788

2.6% $5M-$9.99M 9.0%

5.1

$10M+ 2,164

11.9% CO-OP

CONDO4.2

NUMBER OF SALES

40 $900,000 35 $800,000 30

3,000 2,500

25 $700,000 20 $600,000 15

2,000

$500,000 10

1,000

1,500

[8.0 Month Rate, 10-year average]

5 $400,000 0 <500K $300,000 06

500 $500K-$999K

07

08

$1M-$1.49M

09

1.5M-$1.99M

10

11

$2M-$2.99M

12

$3M-$4.99M

13

14

MANHATTAN CO - OP MANHATTAN CONDO 4Q–2016

$800,000 Average Sales Price $1,800,000 $700,000 Average Price Per Sq Ft $1,500,000 Median Sales Price $600,000

• Listing inventory edged higher as sales declined

73

1,539 0 69

2.6%

MANHATTAN CO - OP

$2,100,000 Condo Market Matrix

• Average sales price exceeded $3 million threshold to a new record

4.8%

-2.4% 16 8.7%

15

50

MEDIAN SALES PRICE MEDIAN SALES PRICE $900,000

CONDOS

1,647 14

4.7 -7.8% ABSORPTION RATE

45 MEDIAN SALES PRICE

4+ bedroom

$1,195

$1,283,048 10 $936

$1,200,000 Number of Sales $500,000 Days on Market (From Last List Date) $900,000 $400,000 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) $600,000 $300,000 Listing Inventory 06 (Active) 07 08 09 $300,000Rate Absorption Active) 06 (Monthly, 07 08 09

15

$10M+

16

0

NUMBER OF SALES NUMBER OF SALES 3,000

%∆ (qtr)

3Q–2016

$3,086,676

4.5%

$2,209

3.6%

$2,133

$1,707,500

6.7%

$1,600,000

1,362

2.6%

1,327

117

36.0%

86

$2,952,382

5.8%

3.2%

10 3,03511 10 6.711

$5M-$9.99M

-12.7% 12 13 -15.2% 12 13

3,475 14 7.9 14

3,000 4Q–2015

%∆ (yr)

2,500 $2,662,100 2,500 2,000 12.8% $1,959 2,000 -1.6% $1,735,641 1,500 1,500 -5.0% 1,434 1,000 21.9% 1,00096 500 3.2% 500 0 2,882 15 5.3%16 0 6.0 15 11.7%16

15.9%

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

MANHATTAN CONDO

NUMBER OF SALES

$2,100,000 MEDIAN SALES PRICE

MANHATTAN LUXURY

3,000 NUMBER OF SALES

$7,000,000 $1,800,000

500 2,500

$6,000,000 $1,500,000 $5,000,000 $1,200,000 $4,000,000 $900,000 $3,000,000

400 2,000 300 1,500 200 1,000 100

$2,000,000 $600,000 06

07

08

09

10

$300,000 06 07

08

09

10

AVERAGE PRICE PER SF

11

11

12

12

13

13

14

14

MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT

VisitMEDIAN our website to browse listings and learn more LUXURY about market trends MANHATTAN 3,000 SALES PRICE 2,500 $7,000,000

15

15

16

16

500 0 0

MARKET SHARE NUMBER OF SALES 60% 50% 500

4Q-2016

2,500

$800,000

The Elliman Report • Quarterly Survey of PRICE Manhattan Co-opMANHATTAN & Condo Sales CONDO MEDIAN SALES

NUMBER OF SALES

$700,000 $2,100,000

2,000 3,000

$600,000

LUXURY

$1,800,000 Luxury Market Matrix

• Price indicators moved higher, largely from new development legacy contracts •S  upply declined, with sharp drop in “aspirationally” priced re-sale inventory •S  urge in negotiability as marketing time expanded

Sales Share

Median Sales Price

Co-ops

52.2%

$3,395,000

Condos

47.8%

$12,877,001

New Dev.

58.8%

$6,721,606

Re-sales

41.2%

$6,000,000

NEW DEVELOPMENT •L  egacy contracts continued to push price indicators to new records •N  umber of sales fell from year ago surge as supply rose sharply

$500,000 Average Sales Price $1,500,000 Average Price per Sq Ft $400,000 $1,200,000 Median Sales Price $300,000 06 07 Number of Sales (Closed) 08 $900,000

%∆ (qtr)

$9,376,803

09

Days on Market (From Last List Date) $600,000 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) $300,000 Listing Inventory 06 (Active) 07 08 09

MEDIAN SALES PRICE

Absorption Rate (Months) $2,100,000 Entry Threshold

6.1%

3Q–2016 $8,840,704

$3,219

5.9%

$3,040

$6,567,712

-3.6%

$6,811,125

10

11 289

12 -3.0% 13

155

14.0%

10 1,271 11

14 298

1,500

2,500 4Q–2015

%∆ (yr)

1,000 $7,702,643 2,000 25.2% $2,572 500 1,500 9.5% $6,000,000 0 15 -3.3%16 1,000 299

21.7%

136

8.6%

3.3%

150 500 4.0% 01,438

2.9% -5.6% 12 13

MANHATTAN CONDO

1,346 14

13.2

-2.9%

13.6

$4,500,000

2.4%

$4,394,069

15-11.6%16

NUMBER OF SALES -8.3% 14.4 3,000 $4,225,737

6.5%

2,500

MANHATTAN LUXURY

MEDIAN SALES PRICE $1,500,000 $7,000,000 $1,200,000 $6,000,000 $900,000 $5,000,000

500 200

$600,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $300,000 06 07 $2,000,000 06 07

08

09

10

08

09

10

MEDIAN SALES PRICE $7,000,000 AVERAGE PRICE PER SF Average Sales Price

New Development Market Matrix

1,500 Days on Market (From Last List Date) $3,000,000 1,000 Listing Discount (From Last List Price) $2,000,000 500 06 07 08 09 Listing0 Inventory (Active) 06

07

08

Absorption Rate (Months)

Sales Share

Median Sales Price

< $1M

11.1%

$1M - $3M

39.7%

11

12

11

12

13 13

MANHATTAN LUXURY

14 14

3Q–2016

09

15

16

15

16

0100 0

NUMBER OF SALES 4Q–2015 500 MARKET$3,293,411 SHARE 49.6%

4Q–2016

%∆ (qtr)

$4,925,429

-8.0%

$5,355,827

$2,811

0.4%

$2,799

27.2%

400 60% $2,210

$2,965,000

-26.1%

$4,011,044

44.0%

479

30.9%

366

-13.2%

181

7.7%

168

20.7%

50% 300 $2,059,411 40% 200 552 30% 100150 20% 2.9% 0 10% 16 783 0% 16 4.3

MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT

$6,000,000 3,000 Average Price per Sq Ft 2,500 $5,000,000 Median Sales Price 2,000 $4,000,000 Number of Sales (Closed)

AVERAGE PRICE PER SF

New Dev. Mix

NUMBER OF SALES 2,000 500 1,500 400 1,000 300

6.9%

10

1,047

10

Sales Share of Overall Market

•D  ays on market and listing discount continued to move higher

49.3%

4Q–2016

$1,800,000

Luxury Mix

> $3M

3,000

$900,000

11

6.6

11

12

7.6% 12

-17.5%

13

13

16.7%

3.4% 14

973 14

8.0

%∆ (yr)

15

33.7%

15

53.5%

12.3%

18.6%

MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT

MARKET SHARE

3,000

60%

2,500

50%

2,000

40%

1,500

30%

$739,000

1,000

20%

$1,824,990

500

10%

$5,727,656

0

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0%

©2016 Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Inc. All worldwide rights reserved.

Douglas Elliman Real Estate 575 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10022 212.891.7000 elliman.com

Miller Samuel Inc. Real Estate Appraisers 21 West 38th Street New York, NY 10018 212.768.8100 millersamuel.com

For more information or electronic copies of this report please visit elliman.com/marketreports. Email report author Jonathan Miller at [email protected] with questions or comments. Report Methodology:

http://www.millersamuel.com/research-reports/methodology

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